Expertise vs. Opportunity

Is your opportunity legit?

My first piece of advice is to examine the opportunity closely and ask yourself whether it is a genuine market opportunity or simply something you perceive as one. The distinction can be hazy at times.

Often, our strong industry expertise misguides us and we see opportunities that don't really exist. We believe we have a good idea of what's needed to move the industry forward and deliver more value to key players because of our solid understanding of the industry. However, the question is whether the industry as a whole is ready to embrace the innovation you've identified as critical.

Most often, it's not, especially if it depends on several slow-moving players, some of whom have little interest in radical innovation. Although some players in the value chain might push for change, others will resist it because they own the market and benefit from the status quo. If only a few players in your industry's value chain are pushing for the innovation you wish to champion, and the value chain is complex, it's very likely your venture will fail.

Before investing significant time into your venture, take a step back and draft a rough gap analysis for each player in the value chain. If you have identified too many threats for one or two key players, you may want to reconsider the opportunity.

If I had to identify one reason for flyiin's limited success, it would be this. Early on, before most airlines knew what an API (Application Programming Interface) was, I believed that airline distribution would become the next big API ecosystem. Like many industries before it, airlines could distribute their flight inventory, fares, product information, and other associated services via their own API to provide the level of transparency consumers were hoping for and to gain control over how their product was marketed to them.

However, reality, at that time, proved different. While some of the major airlines were undergoing this API-driven transformation, our target customer groups during phase two of our history were not. Due to commercial interests, technical barriers, or simply disbelief in the value of such innovation to the end-consumer, there was no market for our powerful flight platform, which combined these airline APIs. At least not on a large scale. Back then, it was too early, too ambitious, and probably too naive.

Take Away #1

Before investing significant time and money in an opportunity, distance yourself from your industry and read it with the highest possible level of objectivity. Reflect on your possible biases: Are you overestimating your own knowledge and expertise? Are you overestimating or misinterpreting signals that the opportunity exists?